PA-11: Kanjorski on Brink of Defeat?

This does not look good.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (10/30-11/2, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 45

Lou Barletta (R): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

The top of the ticket isn’t a problem for Kanjorski here — Obama is leading McCain by 53-43 in this CD (a better margin than Kerry’s 6-point win here in 2004).

While 2006 was a bloodless year for Democrats, 2008 doesn’t look quite as clean — Mahoney is a certain goner, and the GOP could pick up another couple of seats if they’re lucky, including this one. Kanjo has simply run a tired campaign that embodied politics as usual. He is poised to be the rare Dem victim of the “change” mantra tomorrow.

16 thoughts on “PA-11: Kanjorski on Brink of Defeat?”

  1. And to think of all the money we’ve wasted on this guy.  We can get it back though, no Republican except for Mike Castle can hold a D+5 seat in this climate.

  2. The fact is that when a 20-year incumbent is in the high 30s/low 40s late in the game, he’s toast.  

    Goners

    FL-16

    PA-11

    TX-22

    And am a bit concerned about Murtha, but I can’t believe his constituents would throw away his influence.

  4. I think Kanjo deserves to lose.

    Frankly, if the people in his district feel so strongly about illegal immigration that it will cost a popular decades long incumbent his seat, then said incumbent should have switched positions and supported the majority view in his district. Populism goes both ways — even if it’s not in the direction we’d like it to be.

     

  5. My sense is that there are two things to take away from this one.  One is that the old Labor type of Democrats are going away everywhere.  The other is that illegals and more generally Latino immigration has to be dealt with fairly soon.

    For Mahoney, it’s that the Gingrich Era rules about mistresses and payoffs and the like are being repealed by the electorate.

    Lampson…that’s about who runs Texas (read: still the oil patch mafia) and abortion in a fairly rural/agrarian state.

  7. run Pat Casey against him and he will win.  This is a Democratic district and there is no reason to have a Tom Tancredo representing a D+5 district.  

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